Private sector shrinkage and the growth of industrialized economies: Reply

Further tests and thoughts on the OECD data lead me to conclude that, if anything, my 1986 paper underestimated the magnitude of the inverse relation between economic growth and government size. If one takes the nominal-based measure of government scale, as advised by Saunders, the significance levels, coefficient magnitudes and goodness of fits improve over what I found with my initial investigation. I would suggest that Saunders reconsider his reluctance to believe that the size of the public sector is unrelated to economic growth in OECD countries over this time period.One additional thought appears relevant to the current policy debate concerning budget deficits and economic performance within the major industrialized economies. The empirical work displayed here and in my 1986 paper suggests serious problems associated with the various proposals urging governments to raise taxes and/or ease fiscal policy. Elsewhere, I have suggested that available empirical evidence implies that plans to increase taxes as a way out of budget deficits are plans that carry the potential for raising government spending and possibly future deficits as well. Coupled with the evidence presented here, we should also recognize the potential of tax increases to raise the level of government participation in a country and, accordingly, exert inverse influences on its future economic performance as well. As suggested in my 1986 paper, the empirical evidence may suggest the following irony: While political participants may crave larger and larger non-market resource allocations, their future ability to satisfy that craving may very well be severely constrained by the satisfaction of that same appetite.     

Fiji: country profile

Fiji is a country consisting of 300 South Pacific islands, of which the largest is Vitu Levu, which includes the capital, Suva. The islands are home to 700,000 people, of whom 50% are Indian, 46% Melanesian, and the rest Chinese or European. The official language is English, and the major religions are Hinduism and Christianity. Literacy is 79% for men and 64% for women, whose status is generally low in this patriarchal society. Infant mortality is 27/1000 live births, but life expectancy is 70 years. The British began sending missionaries and manufactured goods in the early 1800s and annexed the islands in 1874 as a source of sugar, for which they expropriated the land and imported the Indians as agricultural workers. Sugar remains the largest export along with coconut oil, gold, and timber. Manufactured goods, food, fuel, and chemicals are imported, and the national debt is over $200 million. Foreign investment, mostly by Australia, is $13.2 million. Inflation is 20%; 200,000 people are unemployed, and poverty is general except for the urban elite. The Fijian dollar is worth US. 80. Independence, granted in 1970, replaced colonial control with military governments, currently that of Colonel Rambuka, who refused to allow a democratically elected government to take office. Faced with a declining economy and the political power of the fascist Taukei movement, the Indians, who had been the shopkeepers, craftsmen and bureaucrats during the later period of colonial rule, have been emigrating en masse.     

Swaziland: country profile

Although Swaziland had been independent from colonialism for 20 years, a powerful monarch, King Mswati II, continues to control the country's political, religious, and social system. Swaziland has a population of 676,000, half of whom are under 15 years of age. The infant mortality rate is 105/1000 live births and 25% of children die before they reach their 5th birthday. Life expectancy is 54 years. Tribal chiefs, representing the king, hold and distribute about half of the national land. Most of the fertile land remains in the hands of white settler farmers. The concentration of income in foreign companies and urban centers has exacerbated poverty in rural areas. Depreciation of rand-linked local currency has boosted export earnings, but it has also raised the price of food and medical imports. Swaziland's main exports are sugar, wood pulp, chemicals, and fruit, most of which go to the UK and South Africa. The major food crops are maize, beans, groundnuts, and sorghum. About half of the working population is engaged in small-scale subsistence farming, but food yields are declining. The major producers are foreign companies attracted by Swaziland's low taxes and cheap labor supply.     

Sex determination with the head of the radius

Analysis of a sample of 1108 radii corresponding to 567 black and white North Americans in the Terry Collection at the Smithsonian Institution demonstrates that the diameter of the radial head is an accurate sex discriminator for human remains. A simple "radial-head method" of sex determination consists of measuring the maximum and minimum diameters of the head and comparing such measurements with the test cutoff points. The subject is female when the maximum radial head diameter (either left or right) is less than or equal to 21 mm, and male when the maximum diameter (either left or right) is greater than or equal to 24 mm. The same decisions apply to the minimum diameters of 20 mm or less and 23 mm or more, respectively. When the maximum diameter is 23 mm or the minimum is 22 mm, the subject is more likely male; when the maximum diameter is 22 mm or the minimum is 21 mm, the subject is more likely female. The sample frequency of any one of these latter diameters is never more than 16%. Cross-validation of the method with a sample of 50 pairs of radii of the Terry Collection, different from the original specimens, resulted in 92% sexing accuracy when using the left radius singly, 94% accuracy when using the right radius singly, and 96% accuracy when using both radii jointly.     

Behavior of animal blood in blood typing systems. Isoelectric focusing of erythrocyte acid phosphatase and phosphoglucomutase

Isoenzyme band patterns of animal blood erythrocyte acid phosphatase (EAP) and phosphoglucomutase-1 (PGM) were studied by isoelectric focusing on ultrathin polyacrylamide gels. For blood from all animals tested (dog, cat, cow, sheep, and goat), the overall band patterns for both isoenzymes were different from those of the most common human types of these enzymes, although some animal EAP and PGM bands appeared in the human band areas. When mixtures of human and animal red blood cells were studied, it was found that misinterpretation of human types was possible only if the overall band pattern of the mixtures was ignored. For the animal blood tested, the strong PGM bands appearing outside the human band areas could be used as "markers" for the possible presence of animal blood in the samples tested.     

The cutaneous ink sign: a tipoff to suicide or suicide notes

The presence of smeared or unsmeared ink on the skin resulting from the writing process has been observed in a number of suicide victims who have left suicide notes. The authors report a case of a palmar "cutaneous ink sign" and discuss its forensic science import.